#175: Boundaries are in, know when/where to act.
Don't jump the gun. Be patient.
📝 Smurf’s Cheat Sheet
Bottom confirmed, range is set.
Do nothing until closing above $75K or below $62K.
Retail sentiment is perpetually panicking.
Bullish momentum has peaked in the short term.
Current Bullish Positioning:
No BTC spot exposure.
No BTC leveraged exposure.
No leveraged ALT exposure.
Detailed supporting data are available in this publication.
https://zenworkbench.substack.com/p/175-supplemental
A major shift is coming for Zen Trades. I’ll detail that in a post this week.
If you are into informal and personal content on AI, here’s my new Substack publication where I co-write with DiscreetBear, my AI co-pilot. It’s a weird little experiment, but fun.
https://www.thecontextwindow.dev/p/what-to-expect
🎛️ Market Dashboard
📈Technical Deep Dive (BTC)
Price Action: Consolidation.
RSI: Suggesting ranging consolidation because measurements are below the midline and inside the adaptive bands. The RSI recently closed back under the adaptive top band, setting a momentum ceiling around $72.7K. Price action is fluctuating normally between supports and resistances with a bearish bias.
Divergence Trade Signal: If momentum doesn’t turn down too much, breaking below the early February lows may put on bullish divergence, a setup for a rally.
Trading Approaches for the Week: New bullish breakout potential but range trading it on deck. Smaller position sizing is the prudent approach.
* **Bullish (highly unlikely) - Breakout**
* Condition: Close > $74K & RSI > midline & adaptive top band
* Action: Small long, StopLoss < $65K, Initial target $83K-85K
* **Caution - Range Top Short **
* Condition: High > $74K & Close < $72K
* Action: Small to medium short, StopLoss > $75K, Initial target < $66K
* **Bearish - Support Breakdown:**
* Condition: Close < $63K & RSI below bottom band
* Action: Small to medium short, StopLoss $72K, Initial target ~$54K.Rist Management:
* **Back in Spot Market if:**
* BTC: Divergence trade trigger on daily chart.
* **Position Sizing:**
* BTC: Small to Moderate entries📈Technical Deep Dive (ETH & ALTs)
Price Action: Consolidation.
RSI: Suggesting ranging consolidation because measurements are below the midline and inside the adaptive bands. The RSI recently closed back under the adaptive top band setting momentum ceiling around $2,130. Price action is fluctuating normally between supports and resistances with a bearish bias.
Divergence Trade Signal: If momentum doesn’t turn down too much, breaking below the early February lows may put on bullish divergence, a setup for a rally.
ALTs: This week is probably not the week for breakouts, but it’s a good time to watch for the OKAY setups depicted below. A quick dip below support may provide the liquidity needed for a bounce and breakout play.
Non-BTC Trading Approaches for the week:
* **ETH & ALT Breakouts**
* Condition: BTC$ flat/down, BTC & Stable cap down, Mrkt Driver down * Action: Evaluate ETH & ALT consolidation breakouts
Risk Management:
* **Stop-Losses:** (if random breakout appears)
* Placement under clear pivot point ideally < 12% below entry
* **Position Sizing:**
* Small entries🎯Zen Trades Scoreboard
🔮 Current Market Reflection
Same as last week:
We are now in an indecision phase. Early bears are well in profit and don’t need to do much until we have a rally to add to their shorts. Bottom-calling bulls have deployed capital, but don’t have any reason to do more because if this is a “real” and “traditional” bear market, the timing is way off, and we are nowhere near a bottom in terms of duration or drawdowns of bear markets. Everyone else is side-lined because they don’t know what to believe, are we bottomed or are we about to fall more? There are arguments to be made for both directions, with a bias towards the downside (in my opinion) because that’s the current price trend. Now is the time to range trade, practice and research new methods, review your bull market performance, and identify ways to improve for the next one. Don’t be passive or walk away. Sure, you can slow down, but don’t stop. Now is the best time for growth.
A dip below the February lows may look bad, but depending on momentum could be just the right amount of bearishness to trigger big players to buy into retail fear and selling. If there’s divergence, it’s a good sign that the market on the daily timeframe is finally trying to bottom for the next bullish leg.
New this week:
Barring any meaningful rally in the near future, we are approaching another bearish phase, which may mean we break through the floor for more nasty bear action next quarter.
🤪 Off-Topic Corner
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Back in Korea for the 3rd time. This time to the SE. While in Busan, we are trying to finish the Galmaet-gil Trail (around 170 miles).
We have 5 legs done so far, around 42 miles (68km). The ones just around Busan Station, the three legs of section 3, and two legs of section 4. My partner and I got slightly derailed after an ER visit for me. I got to experience gallbladder pain for the first time. I don’t recommend gallstones. I’m fine now, until it happens again. Got a ticking timebomb inside.
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