A new update to the Smurf Sentiment Index show we are still sitting in a state of Extreme Fear. I think it’s not entirely irrational to be concerned about the state of the market. There are a lot of negative factors out there.
The Smurfs RSI at the bottom is showing the top band sitting under a measure of 50 (the midline) and breaking above it will likely show an increase away from fear. I’ve updated the daily cycles to show the latest projections including the recent sharp declines. An increase is projected through the end of the month. This is also reflected in the updated daily chart models for BTC price. However, the larger trend in price is down and the weekly models are still downtrending. The forecasted rally on the daily price chart and this sentiment chart may only play out as consolidation and ranging at these lower price levels before another price decline. Cyclical uptrends don’t have to mean price increases. They can also be represented as a pause in a downtrending cycle.
The intraday charts are pretty mixed and I’m hesitant to speculate on the prices we’ll be at in June/July. For the short-term, it’s best just to trade the charts as they are. I’m only willing to buy strength when it shows up and that would be when we break above our current ranges.
Long-term I can rationalize buying little bits at the bottom of the ranges. The no-trade zone on ETH is still in effect.
Ultimately on the daily chart, I think the ideal setup would be for prices to wick down and touch below the lowest lows on each chart to set up bullish divergence. That would in my estimation be a good sign we are bottoming. If oscillators are NOT setting a higher low, that’s a bad sign and the final price floor has not been set yet.
I’ve been hard at work to build out something for all the aspiring traders in the paid section of the newsletter. It will be an ever-updating trading course. Here’s a sneak peek.
If you weren’t able to attend the AMA I held in the Steady Stack discord I’ll try and get a copy of the audio for you but in the meantime here are my talking points.
Trading 101: How to Learn
@theprivacysmurf
ps. in case that link doesn’t work well here’s an image.
Best newsletter since I've been getting them! Thank you Terry. Really like the How to Learn bit, that's great!
Great stuff. I love to attend the training and to receive a copy of the AMA I missed. Thank you.