Position Playbook # 79
Position Playbook # 79
Crypto Checkpoint Trade Management
This is the position management portion of the Crypto Checkpoint. The revamped format includes four detailed subsections for each asset, aiming to deliver more comprehensive insights into, a) managing open trade positions or b) seeking market exposure.
These subsections will be titled as follows:
"I'm in longs..."
"I'm not in longs..."
"I'm in shorts..."
"I'm not in shorts..."
Each of these subsections will offer a thorough overview of managing open trade positions or seeking market exposure, depending on the existing hypothetical market status.
I will maintain continuity by carrying forward the proposed management and expectations from the previous week's post.
The objective is to enhance clarity in using the market update posts (now renamed as Crypto Checkpoint) to ensure you have all the necessary information to approach the market in the same manner that I would. Managing positions can be complex, and I aim to equip you with the thought processes I use to navigate the markets efficiently. The posts are designed not to be read sequentially, but to be approached based on a current market status. Find the subsection that corresponds to your current position and start with that. Then, delve into other sections to understand past potential market movements.
I hope you find this new format beneficial, and I eagerly await your feedback as I strive to continually improve my posts. Thank you for your support, and I look forward to delivering more valuable insights in the future.
Each section will include the chart link and the weekly Crypto Checkpoint chart for reference.
Given the week's current technicals:
BTC/USDT Daily Chart
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/jjSdFW4b/
If I'm not in daily chart BTC Longs:
(Conservative Approach) I'm not opening new longs at this level as prices are under resistance at notable prior highs. Also, conservative entries from prior posts have hit profit targets and are trailing with break-even stops. If I had missed prior entries I'd consider a new one under a few conditions.
Daily close over $30.8K with the RSI measuring above the top adaptive band. Invalidation is a daily close under $29.9K.
Retracement taking a precision entry on the 2HR timeframe coming from a bullish trade signal on the CSM with the RSI positions to cross the midline or (and ideally) top adaptive band. Invalidation is a daily close under $29.9K.
Retracement taking a precision entry on the 2HR timeframe with the RSI positioned to cross the midline and a 2HR chart structure shift to a bullish profile (higher low and higher high pivot points). Invalidation is a daily close under $29.9K.
(Risky Approach) Breaking above the recent highs would venture into prices not seen for over a year. It could lead to big runs that I'd want to be exposed to but be wrong and out quickly upon failure because the flash above the highs may just be a ploy to generate liquidity for a selloff. A daily close above the most recent highest close at $30.8K, while the RSI is still above the midline, would be a risky entry I'd consider. This would be exited with a daily close under the most recent red candle lowest low, currently $29.9K, and a conservative entry would be the next option unless the same risky scenario presented itself again.
If I'm in daily chart BTC Longs:
Both approaches reached profit targets so partial profits would be taken and I'd implement a trailing and/or at least a breakeven stop.
(Conservative Approach) For any entries under $29K, I’d be trimming some profits out of the position at $30.8K and moving the stop loss to break even to not allow the position to go negative. I’d be targeting $32K for additional profit-taking. ‘Risky Approach’ entries above could be cues to add to the existing long position. For any entries above $29K, I’d be waiting for higher targets around $32K while considering exiting positions with a daily close under $28.9K or using the ‘Risky Approach’ entries above as cues to add to the existing long position.
(Risky Approach) Similar to the ‘Conservative Approach’ above, for any entries under $29K, I’d be trimming some profits out of the position at $30.8K and moving the stop loss to break even to not allow the position to go negative. I’d be targeting $32K for additional profit-taking. ‘Risky Approach’ entries above could be cues to add to the existing long position.
If I'm not in daily chart BTC Shorts:
(Conservative Approach) Being near the top of the range ($28K-$31K), short is the bias to consider but not from a conservative standpoint as most daily chart technical factors are still in overall bullish conditions. There are no conservative short-entry options at this time. I’d consider a short position if prices rally with daily closes above 31K and the daily chart RSI is trending towards breaking the midline and/or bottom band. This would suggest a divergent reversal. In that event I’d look for a precision entry for the short on the 2HR timeframe, looking for bearish trade signals on the CSM.
(Risky Approach) Similar to the ‘Conservative Approach’ above shorts aren't ideal but getting better looking. Possible entries would be a full bearish trade signal on the 2HR - 6HR timeframe CSM, but I'd keep a stop loss closer than the full stop, exiting with a close above the most recent corresponding resistance on the corresponding timeframe. (For a 2HR chart bearish trade signal use a close above the highest 2HR resistance on the 2HR timeframe chart, etc.)
This bearish trade setup has been triggered so far on the 2HR 4HR and 6HR with initial targets all ranging around the $29.6K level. Often I will use these short target levels as risky long entries instead of shorting a minor move against the dominant bullish trend.
If I'm in daily chart BTC Shorts:
(Conservative Approach) With the daily chart technically presenting a lot of a case for a pause in the bull trend at a minimum a short position is becoming a bigger consideration but further bullishness would mean new 52-week highs and suggest more bullishness. I’d be considering exiting positions for a loss with a daily close above $31.5K. ‘Risky Approach’ entries above could be cues to add to the existing short position while targeting 29.5 to take profits.
(Risky Approach) For any entries above $29.5K, this is not as bad a place to be in, but it’s still seemingly fighting against the market. I’d be considering exiting positions for a loss with a daily close above $28K or alternatively, use the ‘Risky Approach’ entries above as cues to add to the existing short position. I’d be taking initial profits out of the position at $26.5K and moving the stop loss to break even to not allow the position to go negative. I’d be targeting $25K for additional profit-taking if the move continued down.
I must stress again that being short the market in the daily chart context is swimming upstream, but momentum (the current) is currently slowing.
ETH/BTC Daily Chart
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/gTkSjkj6/
To execute these entries:
For longs, I’m:
rotating (selling) BTC into ETH or
buying ETH with USDT to sell in profit into BTC or
buying ALT (that presents with a similar ALT/BTC chart) to sell in profit into BTC.
For Shorts, I’m:
selling ETH or ALT (that presents with a similar ALT/BTC chart) into BTC or USDT.
If I'm not in daily chart ETH/BTC (or ALT) Longs:
(Conservative Approach) The CSM as of the June 27 close is showing 3 oscillators in bullish divergence setups but that alone is not a signal for rotation but does show momentum to the downside is starting to slow. One signal did trigger a buy at 0.06233 on June 25 however the RSI was still below the adaptive bottom band which would lead me to believe there is still no bottom forming yet so a conservative entry wouldn't be taken. Outside of technical factors, I'd the buy bid around the 0.062 - 0.064 level would have occurred. If that entry was missed since closes are still holding under the 0.0622 level conservative entry is not warranted. I would entertain a rotation upon daily closes over 0.0622 with the RSI above the bottom band, ideally with a CSM bullish trade trigger.
(Risky Approach) The exact scenario from last week played out at around 0.0614 and if that entry was missed I'd consider that particular entry again. I'd consider opening new longs for the potential floor creation by monitoring the RSI. Waiting for a daily close with the RSI between the adaptive top and bottom bands would suggest the downside impulsive price action may be ceased. The 2HR timeframe would be important to monitor after this entry. If the lows of the daily chart AFTER the RSI is back in the bands are tested on the 2HR, and bullish divergences on the CSM are invalidated, I’d abandon the position as this would suggest a bearish price continuation.
If I'm in daily chart ETH/BTC (or ALT) Longs:
(Conservative Approach) The CSM as of the June 27 close is showing 3 oscillators in bullish divergence setups but that alone is not a signal for rotation but does show momentum to the downside is starting to slow. One signal did trigger a buy at 0.06233 on June 25 however the RSI was still below the adaptive bottom band which would lead me to believe there is still no bottom forming yet so a conservative entry wouldn't be taken. Outside of technical factors, I'd the buy bid around the 0.062 - 0.064 level would have occurred. If that entry was missed since closes are still holding under the 0.0622 level conservative entry is not warranted. I would entertain a rotation upon daily closes over 0.0622 with the RSI above the bottom band, ideally with a CSM bullish trade trigger.
(Risky Approach) The exact scenario from last week played out at around 0.0614 and if that entry was missed I'd consider that particular entry again. I'd consider opening new longs for the potential floor creation by monitoring the RSI. Waiting for a daily close with the RSI between the adaptive top and bottom bands would suggest the downside impulsive price action may be ceased. The 2HR timeframe would be important to monitor after this entry. If the lows of the daily chart AFTER the RSI is back in the bands are tested on the 2HR, and bullish divergences on the CSM are invalidated, I’d abandon the position as this would suggest a bearish price continuation.
If I'm not in daily chart ETH/BTC (or ALT) Shorts:
(Conservative Approach) The CSM as of the June 27 close is showing 3 oscillators in bullish divergence setups but that alone is not a signal for rotation but does show momentum to the downside is starting to slow. One signal did trigger a buy at 0.06233 on June 25 however the RSI was still below the adaptive bottom band which would lead me to believe there is still no bottom forming yet so a conservative entry wouldn't be taken. Outside of technical factors, I'd the buy bid around the 0.062 - 0.064 level would have occurred. If that entry was missed since closes are still holding under the 0.0622 level conservative entry is not warranted. I would entertain a rotation upon daily closes over 0.0622 with the RSI above the bottom band, ideally with a CSM bullish trade trigger.
(Risky Approach) The exact scenario from last week played out at around 0.0614 and if that entry was missed I'd consider that particular entry again. I'd consider opening new longs for the potential floor creation by monitoring the RSI. Waiting for a daily close with the RSI between the adaptive top and bottom bands would suggest the downside impulsive price action may be ceased. The 2HR timeframe would be important to monitor after this entry. If the lows of the daily chart AFTER the RSI is back in the bands are tested on the 2HR, and bullish divergences on the CSM are invalidated, I’d abandon the position as this would suggest a bearish price continuation.
If I'm in daily chart ETH/BTC (or ALT) Shorts:
(Conservative Approach) For any entries above 0.065, initial profit taking would be in the 0.062 - 0.064 level and I'd move the stop loss to break even to not allow the position to go negative. I’d be targeting 0.058 for additional profit taking. ‘Risky Approach’ entries above could be cues to add to the existing short position. For any entries below 0.065, I’d be waiting for lower targets at least under 0.062 (ideally 0.058) while considering exiting positions with a daily close above 0.065 or using the ‘Risky Approach’ entries above as cues to add to the existing short position.
(Risky Approach) Similar to the ‘Conservative Approach’ above, for any entries above 0.065, initial profit taking would be in the 0.062 - 0.064 level and I'd move the stop loss to break even to not allow the position to go negative. I’d be targeting 0.058 for additional profit taking. ‘Risky Approach’ entries above could be cues to add to the existing short position.
Being short now in the daily context at the bottom of this range is less than ideal and rotations into ETH and ALTs may soon start outperforming BTC if/when the bullish reversal on ETH/BTC triggers.
ETH/USDT Daily Chart
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/xbB6lkZu/
If I'm not in daily chart ETH Longs:
(Conservative Approach) I'm not opening new longs at this level as prices are under notable resistance. Also, entries from prior posts have hit profit targets and are trailing with break-even stops. If I had missed prior entries I'd consider a new one under a few conditions.
Daily close over $1910 with the RSI measuring above the top adaptive band. Invalidation is a daily close under $1860.
Retracement taking a precision entry on the 2HR timeframe coming from a bullish trade signal on the CSM with the RSI positions to cross the midline or (and ideally) top adaptive band. Invalidation is a daily close under $1860.
Retracement taking a precision entry on the 2HR timeframe with the RSI positioned to cross the midline and a 2HR chart structure shift to a bullish profile (higher low and higher high pivot points). Invalidation is a daily close under $1860.
Retracement all the way to $1774 taking a precision entry on the 2HR timeframe coming from a bullish trade signal on the CSM with the RSI positions to cross the midline or (and ideally) top adaptive band. Invalidation is a daily close under $1774.
(Risky Approach) ETH still has some overhead resistance at 2141 but breaking above that would venture into prices not seen for almost a year. It could lead to big runs that I'd want to be exposed to but be wrong and out quickly upon failure because the flash above the highs may just be a ploy to generate liquidity for a selloff. A daily close above the most recent highest close at $1936, while the RSI is still above the midline, would be a risky entry I'd consider. This would be exited with a daily close under the most recent red candle lowest low, currently $1837 and a conservative entry would be the next option unless the same risky scenario presented itself again.
If I'm in daily chart ETH Longs:
Both approaches reached profit targets so partial profits would be taken and I'd implement a trailing and/or at least a breakeven stop.
(Conservative Approach) For any entries under $1780, I’d be trimming some profits out of the position at $1900 and moving the stop loss to break even to not allow the position to go negative. I’d be targeting $2100 for additional profit-taking. ‘Risky Approach’ entries above could be cues to add to the existing long position. For any entries above $1780, I’d be waiting for higher targets around $2040 - $2100 while considering exiting positions with a daily close under $1774 or by using the ‘Risky Approach’ entries above as cues to add to the existing long position.
(Risky Approach) Similar to the ‘Conservative Approach’ above, for any entries under $1780, I’d be trimming some profits out of the position at $1900 and moving the stop loss to break even to not allow the position to go negative. I’d be targeting $2100 for additional profit-taking. ‘Risky Approach’ entries above could be cues to add to the existing long position.
If I'm not in daily chart ETH Shorts:
(Conservative Approach) Being near a notable resistance ($1920), short is the bias to consider but not from a conservative standpoint as most daily chart technical factors are still in overall bullish conditions. There are no conservative short-entry options at this time. I’d consider a short position if prices rally with daily closes above $1940 and the daily chart RSI is trending towards breaking the midline and/or bottom band. This would suggest a divergent reversal. In that event I’d look for a precision entry for the short on the 2HR timeframe, looking for bearish trade signals on the CSM.
(Risky Approach) Similar to the ‘Conservative Approach’ above shorts aren't ideal but getting better looking. Possible entries would be a full bearish trade signal on the 2HR - 6HR timeframe CSM, but I'd keep a stop loss closer than the full stop, exiting with a close above the most recent corresponding resistance on the corresponding timeframe. (For a 2HR chart bearish trade signal use a close above the highest 2HR resistance on the 2HR timeframe chart, etc.)
This bearish trade setup has been triggered so far on the 2HR 4HR and 6HR with initial targets all being hit so far and second targets around the $1810 level. Often I will use these short target levels as risky long entries instead of shorting a minor move against the dominant bullish trend.
If I'm in daily chart ETH Shorts:
(Conservative Approach) With the daily chart technically presenting a lot of a case for a pause in the bull trend at a minimum a short position is becoming a bigger consideration but further bullishness would mean new 52-week highs and suggest more bullishness. I’d be considering exiting positions for a loss with a daily close above $1940. ‘Risky Approach’ entries above could be cues to add to the existing short position while targeting $1774 to take profits.
(Risky Approach) For any entries above $1860, this is not as bad a place to be in, but it’s still seemingly fighting against the market. I’d be considering exiting positions for a loss with a daily close above $1940 or alternatively, use the ‘Risky Approach’ entries above as cues to add to the existing short position. I’d be taking initial profits out of the position at $1774 and moving the stop loss to break even to not allow the position to go negative. I’d be targeting $1644 for additional profit-taking if the move continued down.
I must stress again that being short the market in the daily chart context is swimming upstream, but momentum (the current) is currently slowing.
Hope everyone took advantage of the green and secured some profits. Have a great week.
@theprivaysmurf