I’ll keep posting free Sunday Synopsis content to substack for those who still want an email format for the weekly update, but I will turn off the paid side here by the end of the month. I’m still honoring the annual upgrade to the paid section for $250, a dramatic discount for access to the new site.
More info and links can be found in this post.
On to the update!
Happy New Year! My goal is always to make this year even better than the last. You should strive for the same! To help you out, ‘I'm working for you’ to provide you with the analysis and tools to make the best decisions in the cryptocurrency market. I’ve done some reworking of the site to make the organizational flow a bit better, hopefully. It’s all a work in progress. Thanks for your understanding.
The 2023 Q1 Cycle Forecast will be out Tuesday night!
Unfortunately, trading volume has decreased lately, with last week's volume being the lowest since April 2019. The analysis is hindered due to minimal changes. There are arguments for and against this being a good or bad thing, but one thing is certain: lower volume usually precedes higher volume. Impulsivity is on the horizon.
BTC/USDT Daily Chart
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/jjSdFW4b/
From last week:
“…expect pricing in the $15800 - $17800 range… our trading range for a while longer…”
Over the past two weeks, few changes have occurred in the technical picture. The
Cyclic Relative Strength Index
oscillator (yellow arrow) shows an upward movement of the adaptive bottom band. If the RSI breaks below, it may suggest a potential for impulsive downside price action. I have drawn a horizontal yellow line to divide the higher resistance (red dashed line) and lower support (green dashed line). If broken, this split of the trading range may act as a short-term resistance or support. The 50-Day EMA and 📈Variable Index Dynamic Average sits just above the range bisection, which may act as further resistance.
Given the week's current technicals, I still expect pricing in the $15800 - $17800 range. This would appear to be our trading range for a while longer. My bias this week is neutral to bearish. This is due to the RSI’s presentation and the fact that prices are located below multiple resistances. Bullish divergences near $15800 at the lower end will still be in my thoughts, so I may take a risk and go long. I'm only making short-term intraday moves at range highs and lows.
ETH/BTC Daily Chart
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/gTkSjkj6/
From last week:
“…I’m not looking to make decisions… There is support at the 0.0684 level…”
Patience prevented [investing in] a position that would not yield any returns, preserving the time value of capital. Since the last Sunday Synopsis posting, the chart moved up 2.2% and remained there for the next week and a half. The RSI (yellow arrow) is close to breaching the midline. This could be accompanied by a break above the charted moving averages and the near-term resistance indicated by the yellow dashed line.
Given the current technicals for the week, I’m looking for potential, yet risky, breakout long plays on ETH and altcoins ONLY if the RSI matches with a bullish break of the midline. I’d start looking to take profits when ETH/BTC enters the resistance range around 0.075 while showing weakness. My bias this week is neutral to bearish, but just barely. Technicals may be shifting to a more bullish presentation. If resistance is broken, it is important to look for bearish divergence on lower intraday timeframes (around 2HR). This will hint at whether the breakout will be successful or not. In the event of a fakeout, I would exit alt positions quickly before going too negative. I still expect support at the 0.0684 level. Here, I would watch similar timeframes for bullish divergence, which could indicate a risky long trade.
ETH/USDT Daily Chart
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/xbB6lkZu/
From last week:
“…higher low, maybe testing the yellow box again…”
There has been little price action worth noting for BTC, ETH/BTC, and similarly. Fortunately, there have been no lower closes outside the box, and the current higher low close since Dec 19 at $1190 could be a springboard for a bullish trend if prices can close above $1228 without going lower. My indicator, the Correction Strength Meter (white arrow), is still plotting green for multiple oscillators, suggesting conditions are still favorable for a bullish reversal. Ideally, this would occur with an RSI (white arrow) break above the midline and adaptive top band. There are multiple resistances from the charted moving averages and ultimately at the 1300 level.
Given the current technicals for the week, I’m still expecting ranging prices around $1100 - $1260. My bias this week is SLIGHTLY bearish, but conditions are starting to appear to suggest a short-term bullish shift. Ideally, the RSI will break the midline, and a daily close will plot above $1228. At that point, I’d start watching for long breakout trades and retracements to support short-term bullish swing trades. If the daily close is under $1190, I will abandon the bullish trade ideas, as the lower support at 1100 may be approaching.
This week I’ll be hosting some live zoom calls to cover some portions of the site. Links will be posted at the top of the main page. See you there!
@theprivacysmurf