Gauging the moods on social media this weekend, price action seemed to be a reprieve from a pretty rough week. I think there was a lot of this…
There are still some mixed bullish and bearish signals out there and I’ll get into some of them today. Turn on the above jam read on and we’ll get into it all. It’s a smooth drink, I promise. By the way, I’m also going to drop a video tomorrow about a big trap I’ve talked about before.
BTC/USDT Weekly Structure
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/4v8qizyI/
Welp, we got a new weekly lower low close with the week closing below $43160. This break in market structure changes the weekly trend from bullish to bullish consolidation. What does that mean? I’ll get into it a little bit tomorrow but mainly it means the momentum of the chart has shifted. Downside price action carries the same potential risk/possibility as to the upside. The weekly chart has to plot a new higher-close pivot above 50.7k and then a new higher low pivot followed by another new higher close to establish a new bullish trend. The weekly chart establishing a range wouldn’t be an unexpected outcome over the next few weeks with wicks potentially down to 38k and up to 52k. Assets that I’m not a diamond hand holder on, if they were in a very negative position, I’d start evaluating the technicals to potentially rotate to larger cap assets with less downside risk or move to stable coins to earn interest on while I waited for the market to get it’s shit together. This is a very unappealing strategy as it’s quite possibly selling at the bottom but I’d need to consider some important aspects: a greater potential risk of the downside and capital preservation. If there are significant downside movements how much am I willing to let a red bag just get further and further underwater. Again, these are only things I’m not intending to hold forever and were a short-term trade that went wrong and for whatever reason, I didn’t abide by my stop loss and I don’t have any conviction in its medium-term or long-term prospects. This is also why it’s important to take profit on the way up not down because one doesn’t want to be forced to make this decision and cut off an arm to save the body.
BTC/USDT Daily Chart
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/jjSdFW4b/
Finally! New shit, different day. Too bad it’s bad shit. It was right to be cautious of the floor being maintained. Something on the bright side with the failure of the $46k level was the bullish divergence setups highlighted on the Smurf Correction Strength Meter at the bottom of my chart. While it’s not visible on the RSI it’s still a ray of light with potential bullish implications over the coming days. Let me be clear, the daily trend is still very down. Bullish price action I’d expect would be a test of $46k and MAYBE a test of the 50-Day EMA at around $48k. There’s still a long way to go before the trend reverses and there’s still plenty of higher time frame bearishness that is yet to be resolved. I suspect that $38-$40k support zone will take some considerable effort by bears to break through. It’s something to be watchful of during the week but we likely have established a new daily range floor and will see ranging between $40-$48k. If that floor does get broken though, I’d expect some nasty low wicks.
ETH/BTC Weekly Structure
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/sacHlXOv/
The ETH/BTC weekly chart shows the further retracement from the high resistance. Last week I talked about the single bullish hammer candle, two weeks ago, “which many view as a sign of a reversal” and that I’m not a fan of them (candlestick pattern post.) and we can see why that is. Last week shows no sign of reversal. Support is still at the 0.0763 mark. With this chart retracing and the BTC chart having failed between support there isn’t a play to be made rotating long-term positions between the two assets. ETH/BTC also closed below the last couple of weekly high close pivots back in August and May. That’s not a great sign and shows increasing weakness. A close above the resistance at 0.0859 would signal ETH to gain in percent over BTC for the following weeks.
ETH/BTC Daily Chart
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/gTkSjkj6/
The daily chart analysis last week held up unlike the support on the trendline and the 50-Day EMA. This downside break may come up to be retested over the week but there are no bullish divergences here to suggest a stronger rally for the week. The daily trend here is officially down. The high-side resistance still exists at around 0.083 and a zone of support will likely be found around 0.068 to 0.071.
ETH/USDT Weekly Structure
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/JPTp0aXw/
I’m just gonna repeat last weeks’ assessment because not much has changed here.
With ETH closing below the weekly resistance zone that doesn’t bode well for the next week.
It’s slightly positive to see wicks longer to the downside showing bulls are still actively trying to outbid the sellers.The weekly structure is still bullish until a weekly close below $3059.
I’m expecting to see some wicking into the support zone below this week since both BTC and ETH/BTC are moving in downward directions.
ETH/USDT Daily Chart
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/xbB6lkZu/
I’m enjoying adding in the mid-week update and I hope you are too. The downside price action suspected continued and has now bounced some up from our low floor. The Smurf Correction Strenght Meter on the bottom of the chart shows that there are bullish divergence setups but the blue dots mean that the setups are being invalidated and suggesting potential bearish price continuation. This week there may be some wicking action down into the bottom zone. It’s a bit wild to think we’ll see some sub 3k prices again but I’m here for it. Getting some dollar-cost average buys in the low zone there for long-term positions is probably not a bad idea. The floor at $2675 will also be an area that may take some time and considerable bearish efforts to break through but it’s not unlikely with the technicals looking as bearish as they are.
See you paid folks on Wednesday for the mid-week update. I’ll drop the video tomorrow about the new low weekly close trap for everyone. Have a good week. Also, remember that just because prices are going up for a few days doesn’t mean we are anywhere near out of the woods.
I’m nearing 1000 free subscribers with the newsletter. I’m constantly amazed it’s grown like this. Thanks again for being a part of this journey and be sure to share this with anyone you think could benefit. Feel free anytime to drop me a line and tell me ‘how you love me’ or what I can do to be better or what you’d like to see. I take all the comments into consideration.
@theprivacysmurf
You are spookily on point as usual. I'm not buying anything until you post some video of someone making it rain, likely on Feb 21st. I'm just putting that date out there, no pressure.
I’m loving the multimedia aspect of the newsletter. This jam reminds me of their (collab I think with Bonobo) “a calf born in winter” The info is gold and is spot on logical. I was going through my both my HODL portfolio and my trading acct to do exactly that: figure out where to cut some losses to rotate funds to more interest bearing assets. I’m learning a lot and the pieces are building on each other