Sorry. I’m a bit late cuz of the partying last night. I don't really care so much about the game/outcome/NFL, just the food/drinks/people. Side note, I enjoy the Eagles of Death Metal, they put on a good show. Side side note, who else had one of these metal pin toys? They were so neat.
BTC/USDT Weekly Structure
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/4v8qizyI/
Stiff rejection from the bears this past week. While this long top wick creates a bearish hammer candle I’d want to see one more before I’d expect a reversal. If the week does continue bearish I’d anticipate support coming in from $38-$40k. A retracement would be a good thing if it did as it would create a macro higher low and the weekly chart would be closer to establishing a bullish trend. Weekly resistance to the topside is the same as last week around the $47k mark.
BTC/USDT Daily Chart
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/jjSdFW4b/
The daily chart shows the clean break of the descending trendline and the 50-Day EMA this past week. The retest of the EMA as support has dipped below but horizontal support at $40-$42k is likely to provide some additional backup for the bulls. A new ascending trendline could be drawn from the low closes. With the closes staying above the ascending trendline and $40k I’d expect strength to continue building in this bullish move. There are a lot of areas one could consider as resistance. Prices from $45k-$47 could suppress bullishness if buy volume is low. I’d expand the expected range higher this week up to $46k and the lows to $41k. The midweek update will likely be helpful to check in on the prospects of a late-week retracement.
ETH/BTC Weekly Structure
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/sacHlXOv/
The weekly chart of ETH/BTC closed bearish with nearly the same body range as the prior week. This consolidation is not going to last long. I’d make no long-term moves here rotating to BTC or ETH. If the mark price gets down to the 0.625 support buying some ETH with BTC would be a long-term area of value and I’d expect a rally from there. The daily chart may give some insight to the possible break of consolidation.
ETH/BTC Daily Chart
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/gTkSjkj6/
On the daily chart, the 0.68 test suggested last week came to pass. A bounce there or a creates a new pivot point for an ascending triangle. The declining RSI measurements don’t give me a lot of confidence in a bullish break at the moment but I’m not expecting a breakdown yet. The 50-Day EMA, which is in line with the longer descending trendline, will likely be tested again as resistance before prices come down to the 0.068 level again. If the EMA is broken to the upside it’s likely that ETH will have a slight price increase advantage on BTC for the near term.
ETH/USDT Weekly Structure
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/JPTp0aXw/
The retracement seen in BTC was also present in ETH on the weekly chart and we closed in the support zone. The bearishness can be reversed with a bullish close above $3346, the green candle that bounced on the support zone a few weeks ago. I’m not expecting prices lower than the support floor at $2652. If the ETH/BTC chart breaks down I’d be expecting this chart to follow suit with a wick below the floor but not a close below. Perhaps the daily chart can help determine which way the week will close.
ETH/USDT Daily Chart
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/xbB6lkZu/
The EMA test and return to the support zone suggested last week has played out. There is a weak ascending trend line appearing but without a bullish candle, I’d be wary of entering a position. There is however price compression between the EMA, descending trendline, and horizontal supports. Without the RSI turning up I’d expect continuation to the downside. I’d expect some very inconsistent price action and volatility this week with prices likely to the high side ($3300) early in the week and low end ($2800) later in the week.
Hope everyone has a great week. I’ve been fiddling around with some interesting things with other aspects of cycle analysis and long story short there’s the potential for no strong bullish behavior until mid-march. I really hope that’s not the case but we should be prepared for more inconsistency as the market sorts out if it wants to ACTUALLY bottom or not.
@theprivacysmurf