It feels weird after missing a couple of posts. I’ll do what I can to not make that happen occasionally, but life is life sometimes and it has a mind of its own. Here have some tunes and let’s get back into it. With all this bearish activity it just makes you want to just “Take the Money and Run” sometimes.
BTC/USDT Weekly Structure
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/4v8qizyI/
With last week's close being bullish the prospects for a bullish trend flip still exist. A weekly close below $37.7k wouldn’t be a good sign but the bullish flip in market structure is still on the table as long as closes don’t creep below $36.2k. Weekly closes would have to move above 42.3k to flip the trend. The last candle closed as a shooting star (see the relevant patterns I like by clicking here). This presents the case for bearish price continuation. I’d expect the possibility of prices wicking below the $36.2 floor. That being said, I’d not be making any long-term decisions with my BTC until a weekly close below the last lowest close at $31.8k. The daily chart will give a better outlook on where this weekly close may end up.
BTC/USDT Daily Chart
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/jjSdFW4b/
There’s plenty to glean from the daily picture. First. Price is trapped in a range, depicted by the white dotted lines. Second. While being in this range closing prices are getting successively higher, depicted by the ascending trend line. This is a positive sign although this week I wouldn’t be surprised to see the trendline broken and prices dip back to the bottom of the range. The RSI is currently trending down below the midline and the bottom band on the RSI is slowly creeping up. A downside break of the bottom band may show prices wicking into the top of the support range again (~$36.4k). A daily close below the bottom line around $37.7k is the first signal to start putting more weight into the possibilities of losing out current floor ~($35.1k). A sub $37.7k close is a strong possibility early in the week IMO. Later in the week I’m expecting a return to at least the 50-Day EMA (~41.5k)
ETH/BTC Weekly Structure
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/sacHlXOv/
ETH has been steadily losing ground in its relative value to BTC. The market structure still technically remains bullish until a close below the last support at the 0.0624 mark. In the event of that close, the BTCUSD weekly structure has likely broken bearish as well as ETHUSD. The potentials for further long-term bearishness creep in at that point. While rotations to BTC or cash may be preferable for some, I typically prefer to not sell out completely of my BTC and ETH and would just focus on yield-bearing options for these assets OR use BTC and ETH as collateral to borrow stablecoins to put into yield-bearing protocols. That being said, I’m not expecting a close below the support this week.
ETH/BTC Daily Chart
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/gTkSjkj6/
There’s really nothing bullish at all with this chart. The compression of price action by the 50-Day EMA and the low support at the 0.0652 mark will likely lead to some volatility. The RSI is trailing down and the bottom band creeping up. Without some additional buy volume, I’d be anticipating a downside break of the bottom band on the RSI thus a downside break of the 0.0652 support. Even with a bullish break, I’m not expecting any closing prices above the 50-Day EMA (~0.07).
ETH/USDT Weekly Structure
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/JPTp0aXw/
The weekly chart of ETH shows a similar shooting star candle pattern suggesting bearish price continuation. Similar to BTC the weekly chart managed to close above the market structure support at $2539. This maintains the possibility of a bullish trend flip. A weekly close below that price would confirm a bearish trend and a weekly close above $3346 would confirm a bullish trend. Same as BTC I’d expect price wicking below the support at $2539 this week. The daily chart will help determine the possibilities for the week’s close location.
ETH/USDT Daily Chart
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/xbB6lkZu/
Since it’s late, I’m tired and this picture is so dang similar…. from BTC above.
There’s plenty to glean from the daily picture. First. Price is trapped in a range, depicted by the white dotted lines. Second. While being in this range closing prices are getting successively higher
, depicted by the ascending trend line. This is a positive sign although this week I wouldn’t be surprised to see thetrendline broken andprices dip back to the bottom of the range.
The RSI is in a slightly better position with the bottom band fixed at the bottom of the oscillator. This would lead me to expect the support to hold closing prices above it. If that bottom band creeps up during the week it could mean a failure of the support on a test.
All in all, we are unfortunately out of the woods yet. It’s an interesting situation because I think there are a lot of smart folks who are mostly patiently waiting on the sidelines. Then there are still non-patient and exuberant traders going long when they shouldn’t be and getting wiped out in the chop. Then there are novices getting scared and selling. This lack of buyers because the market isn’t going anywhere is just prolonging the market from going anywhere. I’m curious about what will come first: the point of no return when more people just end up evacuating the market in expectations of lower prices OR when we hit the point of best buy value and folks flood into the market.
Have a great week, I’ll see all the paid folks for the Wednesday update and I’ll put something together for a video on Thursday. We are swiftly approaching the end of March which will bring the Q2 forecast. If you aren’t on the paid side you should consider swapping over because these reports are the models I use to plan out my personal trading/investing actions so it’s not something to pass on IMO. The last few quarterly forecasts have been dead-on in projecting the market turns where soooooo many other products and services out there have missed them. They are well worth the small cost of a subscription here.
Side note, I still think there’s enough evidence to support the idea of the next bull trend starting soon.
@theprivacysmurf
A rare two-song post.
I just have to say to BTC, ‘You’re so outta control... You gotta be more in control… Be more in control.’
Thanks, The Fashion. You guys were a fun little band. RIP
Thank you again for a great update post Terry. Cheers!