The Forecasting Accountability Gap
How I'm Building a Better Standard
Forecasting is a powerful tool that offers traders and investors a glimpse into potential market movements. Many of our decisions involve some idea of what we expect the future to be like. Yet, too often, the craft when used for financial analysis is overshadowed by vague predictions and evasive narratives designed to sidestep accountability. A fog of ambiguity descends, where the language is so open to interpretation that it’s impossible to determine what’s right or wrong. When forecasts fail, the story shifts. The incorrect ones are quietly brushed aside or explained away, while only the accurate calls are celebrated—creating an illusion of foresight that undermines trust.
This approach not only damages the credibility of forecasting but leaves traders without the clarity they need to make informed decisions. The solution lies in a commitment to integrity and precision from analysts. Clear, data-driven analysis paired with honest communication about uncertainties is essential. Forecasting should empower traders, not confuse them. By embracing transparency and accountability, and demanding that from your sources or avoiding information lacking this will help to rebuild your trust and provide the clarity needed to thrive.
It’s in this light that I am holding myself to a higher standard—one rooted in accountability, transparency, and precision.
I would never suggest anyone trade solely on a timing model I provide each quarter. It is an incomplete picture and flawed picture. However, I have provided public uneditable forecasts in tradingview since 2022 Q3, that, on the daily timeframe, have accurately timed 22 market turns and missed or been invalidated on 9, resulting in a 70.97% efficiency rate. I have provided forecasts increasing this accuracy since 2021 Q2 but they were not in an a verifiably unaltered form so I have left them from this measure. That’s a solid track record, but it’s far from flawless and trading each turn in this manner wouldn’t have been the optimal choice. Acknowledging this is crucial to improving.
Raw percentages and historic callout screenshots aren’t enough. The forecasting field also suffers from a lack of measurable frameworks to assess the confidence and reliability of predictions. There’s also a common misinterpretation of probabilites. An outcome that had an 80% probability of likelyhood can still not happen 20% of the time, and that doesnt mean the forecast was wrong. To combat these issues I’m stepping away from commonly used statistics and integrating scoring methods into my models, providing confidence scores for weekly closing prices and quarterly price models. This will enable the reader to evaluate the accuracy of my forecasts moving forward, creating a system that is measurable, reviewable, and held to account. One will be able to determine a few things:
- How often events that I propose will occur actually do occur.
- How accurate I am at estimating an event’s rarity.
- If I tend to over or underestimate events, which can be used to influence your opinions on my analysis.
The issue goes deeper than just tools and metrics, however, and I must address how forecasters communicate. Ambiguous phrases like potentially, maybe, may/may not, could/could not, sooner/later provide cover for missed calls while offering nothing actionable to traders. I pledge to deliver clear probabilities and transparent reasoning. Below are thresholds I’ve established that I will follow for my analysis.
This isn’t about guaranteeing perfection—it’s about ensuring that every prediction is precise, actionable, and grounded in accountability. Forecasting is inherently uncertain. The solution isn’t to avoid that uncertainty—it’s to embrace it, quantify it, and learn from it. I will continue to refine my process, setting a standard for what forecasting can and should be.
If you didn't read my latest quarterly report it includes many of these new elements. It also forecasted the recent peak perfectly.
Check it out through the link below to catch up on one possible future for the crypto market in the upcoming quarter.
Thanks for taking the time to muddle your way through a text heavy post. I’m looking forward to the challange of providing the best possible analysis at a level of accountability that other’s aren’t willing to match. See you in the next post.
@ThePrivacySmurf
I know you didn’t include it in your metrics for good reason but can you post here the accuracy % for all your calls since 2021 Q2?
Excellent post btw!