When Data Isn't Enough

My Search for the Story Inside the Data

I wear three hats every day: technical analyst, data scientist, and writer. It's a constant juggling act. I spend countless hours consuming content on how to be a better writer, dedicate significant time to honing my trading skills, and constantly educate myself on data science best practices.

Of all these pursuits, writing is undeniably the hardest.

You'd think there would be a playbook for this, right? There are brilliant resources on data visualization and storytelling with numbers. There are masterclasses on crafting compelling fiction and non-fiction. But try finding someone who teaches you how to marry analytical rigor with narrative magic? Good luck with that.

I've scoured the internet, countless blogs, forums, and videos, searching for anyone who's cracked this code. It's a lonely pursuit. When you're the person at a party who wants to discuss both Bayesian statistics and character development, you end up talking to yourself a lot.

I once believed that nailing a forecast would earn instant respect and recognition. I've consistently and accurately forecasted market turning points for years now, regardless of whatever flawed reasoning and analysis exists out there. Victory lap, right? Hardly. I'm still a tiny fish in the ocean, and even some of my most loyal readers reluctantly cling to the practices and deeply held false narratives the mainstream champions.

It stings, but correctness does not equal resonance. A chart alone cannot compete with a gripping storyline, even if that storyline is wrong. No one really cares about a correct forecast, despite it being so many people's claim to fame. Everyone has made at least one good call, but it's not the prediction that makes someone notable. People don't remember your accuracy; they remember your story.

As someone who believes data inspection is the key to finding the closest thing to "truth," here's what drives me crazy: most "data-driven narratives" out there are terrible stories. Markets are messy, human psychology is complex, and intentions are unknowable, yet we're fed storylines that sound like they were written by someone who's never actually traded a position or dug deep into the data. They're analytically shallow and rely on contrived, overly neat conclusions. Everything is painted in stark black and white. It’s all bullshit.

Good narratives don't work that way. The best stories embrace complexity. They show us flawed heroes and sympathetic villains. They explore the messy middle ground where most of us in the real world actually live, letting readers sit with tension and competing desires while still guiding them purposefully toward a meaningful ending.

Instead of presenting clear-cut facts, figures, and simple explanations, I want to take a more nuanced approach that explores ambiguity, conflicting motivations, and multiple perspectives. This hopefully makes a narrative far more engaging and relatable. I want to encourage readers to think critically and empathize with different viewpoints, rather than just accepting the mainstream narrative or a conclusion I've reached. A nuanced story doesn't give you an easy answer; it gives you a richer understanding.

Numbers can be characters in a story. Trends can have narrative arcs. Statistical anomalies can serve as plot twists. But making this work requires a skill set I'm still developing, largely through trial and error because I can't find enough people doing it well to learn from.

Some days, I wonder if I'm making this harder than it needs to be. Maybe I should just pick stick to what I’m good at, being a great analyst, increasing readership be damned. But something in me resists that binary choice. I believe there's magic at the intersection, even if I'm still fumbling around trying to find it.

Until then, I'll keep experimenting, keep pushing to find that sweet spot where rigorous analysis meets human truth. I believe it's worth it. Society rewards quick takes and confident predictions over nuance and accuracy and because of that we are drowning in both bad data and bad stories. I'm willing to do the hard work of combining them well to create something far more powerful than either could produce alone.

@ThePrivacySmurf

If you’ve found someone who you think nails this balance, throw it in the comments. I’d love to read it.