CC #118 Supplemental Data
Devils roll the dice, angels roll their eyes...
CC #118’s ANALYSIS TL:DR
The market retains a bullish weekly and daily structure with continued extremely greedy sentiment. The Market Validity Score and Crypto Money flow show bullish ALT behavior stalling. BTC and stablecoins found support and are rallying towards resistance, suggesting another ALT weakness and a possible bearish market move. It’s a week of caution and waiting to see how things shake out.
https://zenalyticstrading.substack.com/p/118-cruel-summer
The information below reviews the base-level technical analysis and key metrics I use weekly to create the TL;DR in the main newsletter.
Total Market Weekly Structure
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/FEeyCH3q/
No new changes…
Last modification Nov 17, 2024:
The weekly market structural trend remains bullish. With the latest weekly close above 3.62T, the crypto market cap prints a new all-time weekly high close. This suggests a bullish continuation, but I still suspect this won’t occur.
It would be irresponsible to overlook that this is reminiscent of the previous bull market. The market started from a low, made a high, a higher low, broke through a new higher high, and then a few weeks later, the bull market collapsed and ended. It kept going up for 4 weeks. We just closed the 4th week above the prior high.
Total Market Daily Structure
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/25yQcZV1/
No new changes…
Last modification Nov 11, 2024:
The daily market structural trend remains bullish. With the latest weekly close above 3.62T, the crypto market cap prints new all-time daily high closes. There are no planned resistances, and the general expectation is a bullish continuation. Still, the daily chart experienced the same as the weekly chart, rolling over after breaking the final resistance, so caution should be considered.
Crypto Money Flow
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/E249oVQY/
No new changes…
Last modification Nov 18, 2024:
The starting point of the Crypto Money Flow chart remains unchanged: November 18, 2024, at 23:00 UTC, as seen above.
The signs of ETH and ALT’s topping and the rotation back into BTC and Stables are starting to show.
In the image above, the vertical line was around the time of last week’s post. ETH and ALTS have receded from last week’s highs, and BTC and Stables are bottoming and approaching a resistance (horizontal white line). If they continue up and break this level, I assume this will be accompanied by bearish price action across the market.
Additional Crypto Metrics
Retail sentiment on the daily timeframe spent most of the week in the Extreme Greed zone. If squiggly lines interest you, a possible head and shoulders pattern is observed in the measurements. This pattern has a potential bearish implication, which aligns with expectations after reaching greedy extremes.
The Market Validity Score shows that the market structure of most assets is bullish. Last week's breakout failed to move enough coins to a bullish state to breach the earlier high in November. Despite the gains across the market, it’s a generally weaker rally.
On a side note, this is one of the few metrics I used in the past for top signaling. I’m less inclined to think it will reach the extremes in the short term and require a second bullish push later in the year or early next year.
Check out the weekly update newsletter to read my conclusions from these metrics.
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Click the links below if you need a refresher on the checkpoint elements.
See you in next week’s market update!
@theprivacysmurf