#137: BTC & ALTs Push Higher
, But Focus Remains on Risk Management
The East Coast of Korea (Sokcho) has been nice. Sort of relaxing to get away from the constant bustle around Seoul.
Not gonna lie though, I didn’t know what to do with the fish head in my soup. I didn’t eat it. The soup was good, though. Do people eat these? Someone in the know, please help me out here…
Retail “no longer seems to cope…”
📌 TL;DR / Smurf’s Summary
Bitcoin's bullish momentum has increased following its breakout, but caution is still warranted due to lingering bearish signals. Support now sits at $95.7K - $98.3K, with resistance at $107K - $110K. The daily structure remains bullish; however, a daily close below $92K could signal short to mid-term weakness. Ethereum and altcoins are now actively participating in the bull run as the altcoin rotation unfolds; the focus remains on well-defined breakout trades with tight stops. With bullish divergence targets achieved this past week, the market enters a pivotal period, with a potential topping window anticipated around May 18-23.
🚦 Trader Traffic Light
BTC Trades: 🟡
Yellow Light. The breakout from $82K has played out now. Bullish momentum is has increased from last week but bearish signals still exist so position sizes aren’t large and partial profit is secured at resistance. I’d consider another bearish invalidation breakout trade over $105K.
ETH & ALTs Trades: 🟡
Yellow Light. I’m still not looking for dip buys. The ALT rotation is in play but still some caution exists. I’m focusing on clean setups and not chasing plays. I’m still keeping a close eye on the altcoin market cap here. Once BTC and Stables rise together and ETH & ALTs stall I’m securing most of my profits. I’m staying out of new trades then because any downturn on BTC will likely bring the whole market with it.
🔍 Where Are We Now?
Market Structure: Bullish daily structure, short-term bearish momentum is invalidated.
Retail Sentiment: Deeper into Extreme Greed threshold.
Current Positioning:
BTC spot long at $78K (trimmed profit: 1st @ $91.5K, 2nd @ $95.8K, more soon?).
Opened and closed multiple positions. Continuing evaluation of more ALT breakout trades with tight stops.
What are the Technicals?
Definitions:
Weekly Closing Range: Created with Bayesian statistics and linear regression. More on that here.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Momentum indicator showing speed and power of price action.
Divergence: When price action is going one way but momentum is going the other, suggesting the current price trend might be losing power.
📈 Technical Deep Dive (BTC)
Price Action: Bullish Bias
Support zone at $95.7K-$98.3K; Resistance zone near all-time high $107 - $110K. The zone at $100K - $102K is irrelevant as price traded directly through without hesitation.
Weekly Closing Range is forecasted at $100K - $107K by Sunday. 14 out of 28 (50% efficiency)
Indicators & Oscillators:
RSI: Suggesting bullish expansion because measurements are:
Currently above midline - momentum is generally bullish, it’s easier to go up than down.
Currently above adaptive top band - price action is on a momentum breakout to define a new ceiling.
Closing below the adaptive top band would mean bullish impulsive action has ceased and a new ceiling may be established at $104.8K ceiling.
Divergence Signals: Both bullish divergence targets signaled in mid-March at $94K at 104K have been hit. BTC has competed it’s bullish reversion to the mean after pulling back from the all-time high.
📉 Technical Deep Dive (ETH & ALTs)
Price Action (ETH): Bullish Bias
Support zone at $2320; Resistance zone currently holding at $2585 - $2640 and higher resistance at $2895. The resistance at $1960 is irrelevant as price traded directly through without hesitation.
Weekly Closing Range is forecasted at $2405 - $2655 by Sunday. 12 out of 24 (50% efficiency)
Indicators & Oscillators (ETH):
RSI: Suggesting bullish expansion because measurements are:
Currently above midline - momentum is generally bullish, it’s easier to go up than down.
Currently above adaptive top band - price action is on a momentum breakout to define a new ceiling.
Closing below the adaptive top band would mean bullish impulsive action has ceased and a new ceiling may be established at $104.8K ceiling.
Divergence Signals: The confirmed bullish divergence target at 2250 has been hit. The secondary target remain around $2800. There is increased probability of this being hit now with momentum on the breakout, but that will decline again if the RSI retruns back below the top adaptive band before hitting the secondary target..
ALTs: Not lagging behind the market anymore. Multiple breakout trades presented themselves and have been hitting targets. The focus remains on ALTs that have been up trending and are at resistance levels or new(ish) highs. Wait for breakouts that allow for tight stop losses, ideally focusing on ALTs consolidating under resistance looking to continue up, not necessarily on ones that haven’t broken out yet.
🧭 What’s the Plan?
**🧭 Trading Plan & Scenarios**
* **Bullish - BTC Breakout Continuation:**
* Condition: Close > $105K
* Action: Eval. new leveraged longs, partial TP at ATH
* **Caution - BTC Consolidation:**
* Condition: $98K < Daily Closes < $105K & RSI inside bands
* Action: Consider short-term range trading, buy support & sell resistnace
* **Bearish - BTC Bullish Invalidation:**
* Condition: Close < $92K
* Action: Close short-term spot BTC position
* **ALT Rotation Over:**
* Condition: BTC price down, BTC.D up, & Stables market cap increasing
* Action: Close short-term ALT breakouts
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**📌 Spot Risk Management**
* **Stop-Losses:**
* BTC: Daily close < $74K
* ALTs: Placement under clear pivot point ideally < 12% below entry
* **Position Sizing:**
* BTC: Small to moderate entries
* ALTs: Moderate to small entries
🔮 My Long-Term Market Reflection
Macro Cycle Status:
Bull market still intact but in a phase that in the past lead to bear market confirmation unless we have daily closes above the all-time high, then things get tricky and not so clear-cut.
Historical Comparison:
Similar patterns to the prior bull market suggest caution; historically, failure to breach all-time highs before turning back down signaled bear market onset.
Personal Expectations:
As time progresses without setting new price highs, we continue to shape the market similarly to the last bull market.
In a perfect mirroring scenario, we would have already hit the lowest low (✅) and initiated a rally (✅), only to establish a macro lower high over the next 3 weeks before transitioning into a bear market. This timeline matches very well with the current peaking window for the daily chart, according to the quarterly forecast. Read that here if you haven’t yet.
https://zenalyticstrading.substack.com/p/quarterly-market-synthesis-q2-2025
We have now met both targets for the bullish divergence trade signaled back in March. The market has completed it’s bullish reversion to the mean. A rollover to new lows from here would not be unprecedented. All that remains is a momentum ceiling and/or bullish divergence on the daily timeframe.
We have left the first price peak timing window for BTC. As noted last week. The key thing to note is a topping window does have to mean prices go down. It can also present as a pause in an uptrend. That would was the case until the bullish burst this past week.
The next topping turning point for a peak is between May 18 - May 23. In a perfect world we’d see a price increase before then.
The opportunity for a lower swing entry didn’t present it’self during the April to may window. This happens, (and it’s also why I take partial profits on the way up. I’d rather have some exposure than none when things don’t go perfectly. Ideally sometime before the 23rd we’ll get some decent topping signal to secure more profits.
Maybe the last of the year????
🎯 Key Takeaways
BTC: Bullish momentum up, targeting resistance ($107K-$110K); support at $95.7K-$98.3K. Monitor for RSI breakout or breakdown when price is above $105K or below $92K.
ETH/ALTs: ALT rotation active. Focus on clean breakouts in strong ALTs near resistance with tight stops. Avoid chasing. Watch for rotation end signals.
Strategy: High greed + macro caution. Stick to plan, manage risk (stops/sizing), secure profits, especially near the May 18-23 potential topping window.
@ThePrivacySmurf